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2020 President · CT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 2,031 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 38%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.26% · Republican 39.19%

D+20.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 38 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.261 − 39.188 = 20.073
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (20.073) = 1.926
  4. Absolute miss = |1.926| = 1.926

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72854, race ID 6217 (538 database).