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2020 President · FL

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 8,792 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 49%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-3.359) = 3.358
  4. Absolute miss = |3.358| = 3.358

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72851, race ID 6220 (538 database).