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2020 President · HI

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 688 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 67% · Republican 31%

D+36.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.73% · Republican 34.27%

D+29.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 67 − 31 = 36.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.734 − 34.269 = 29.465
  3. Signed miss = 36.00 − (29.465) = 6.535
  4. Absolute miss = |6.535| = 6.535

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72849, race ID 6222 (538 database).