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2020 President · IL

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 5,643 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 40%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.54% · Republican 40.55%

D+17.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 40 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.542 − 40.553 = 16.989
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (16.989) = 1.012
  4. Absolute miss = |1.012| = 1.012

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72846, race ID 6225 (538 database).