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2020 President · IN

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 2,729 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 54%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.96% · Republican 57.02%

R+16.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 54 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.962 − 57.021 = -16.059
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-16.059) = 6.059
  4. Absolute miss = |6.059| = 6.059

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72845, race ID 6226 (538 database).