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2020 President · LA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,556 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 62%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.85% · Republican 58.46%

R+18.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 62 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.851 − 58.461 = -18.610
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-18.610) = -7.391
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.391| = 7.391

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72842, race ID 6229 (538 database).