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2020 President · ME

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,274 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 42%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.09% · Republican 44.02%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 42 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.092 − 44.021 = 9.071
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (9.071) = 4.929
  4. Absolute miss = |4.929| = 4.929

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72839, race ID 6232 (538 database).