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2020 President · MI

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 4,549 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 46%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 46 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (2.784) = 3.216
  4. Absolute miss = |3.216| = 3.216

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72838, race ID 6233 (538 database).