Skip to content

2020 President · MO

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 2,926 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 54%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.41% · Republican 56.80%

R+15.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 54 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.409 − 56.800 = -15.391
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-15.391) = 5.391
  4. Absolute miss = |5.391| = 5.391

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72836, race ID 6235 (538 database).