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2020 President · MT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,021 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 52%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.55% · Republican 56.92%

R+16.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 52 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.550 − 56.919 = -16.369
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-16.369) = 10.369
  4. Absolute miss = |10.369| = 10.369

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72834, race ID 6237 (538 database).