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2020 President · NE

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,742 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 56%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.17% · Republican 58.22%

R+19.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 56 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.167 − 58.224 = -19.057
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-19.057) = 6.058
  4. Absolute miss = |6.058| = 6.058

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72831, race ID 6240 (538 database).