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2020 President · NH

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,013 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 45%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.71% · Republican 45.36%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 45 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.708 − 45.356 = 7.352
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (7.352) = 1.647
  4. Absolute miss = |1.647| = 1.647

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72830, race ID 6241 (538 database).