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2020 President · NJ

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 3,870 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 38%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.33% · Republican 41.40%

D+15.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 38 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.334 − 41.397 = 15.937
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (15.937) = 5.062
  4. Absolute miss = |5.062| = 5.062

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72829, race ID 6242 (538 database).