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2020 President · NM

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,481 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 42%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.29% · Republican 43.50%

D+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 42 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.289 − 43.497 = 10.792
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (10.792) = 3.207
  4. Absolute miss = |3.207| = 3.207

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72828, race ID 6243 (538 database).