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2020 President · NV

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 2,366 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 49%

even

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.67%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.057 − 47.666 = 2.391
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.391) = -2.391
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.391| = 2.391

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72827, race ID 6244 (538 database).