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2020 President · NY

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 6,548 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 63% · Republican 35%

D+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.37% · Republican 34.31%

D+22.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63 − 35 = 28.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.371 − 34.313 = 22.058
  3. Signed miss = 28.00 − (22.058) = 5.942
  4. Absolute miss = |5.942| = 5.942

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72826, race ID 6245 (538 database).