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2020 President · OH

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 6,025 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 51%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 51 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-8.032) = 4.032
  4. Absolute miss = |4.032| = 4.032

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72825, race ID 6246 (538 database).