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2020 President · OK

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,902 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 65%

R+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.29% · Republican 65.37%

R+33.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 65 = -30.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.286 − 65.373 = -33.087
  3. Signed miss = -30.00 − (-33.087) = 3.087
  4. Absolute miss = |3.087| = 3.087

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72824, race ID 6247 (538 database).