Skip to content

2020 President · RI

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 566 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 36%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.39% · Republican 38.61%

D+20.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 36 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.388 − 38.613 = 20.775
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (20.775) = 5.225
  4. Absolute miss = |5.225| = 5.225

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72821, race ID 6250 (538 database).