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2020 President · VA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 4,550 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 41%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.11% · Republican 44.00%

D+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 41 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.110 − 43.996 = 10.114
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (10.114) = 5.886
  4. Absolute miss = |5.886| = 5.886

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72815, race ID 6256 (538 database).