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2020 President · WI

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 2,814 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 44%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 44 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (0.628) = 9.373
  4. Absolute miss = |9.373| = 9.373

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72812, race ID 6259 (538 database).