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2020 President · WV

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 816 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 67%

R+35.0

The certified result

Democrat 29.70% · Republican 68.63%

R+38.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 67 = -35.00
  2. Actual margin = 29.695 − 68.628 = -38.933
  3. Signed miss = -35.00 − (-38.933) = 3.933
  4. Absolute miss = |3.933| = 3.933

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72811, race ID 6260 (538 database).