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2020 President · M1

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 549 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 35%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.12% · Republican 37.02%

D+23.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 35 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.115 − 37.021 = 23.094
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (23.094) = -2.094
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.094| = 2.094

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72803, race ID 8422 (538 database).