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2020 House · ME-2

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 475 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 44%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.04% · Republican 46.95%

D+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 44 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.043 − 46.948 = 6.095
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (6.095) = 2.906
  4. Absolute miss = |2.906| = 2.906

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72801, race ID 8015 (538 database).