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2020 President · NC

Wick · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47.2% · Republican 49.4%

R+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.59% · Republican 49.93%

R+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.2 − 49.4 = -2.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.586 − 49.934 = -1.348
  3. Signed miss = -2.20 − (-1.348) = -0.852
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.852| = 0.852

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72796, race ID 6238 (538 database).