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2020 President · FL

Wick · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47.2% · Republican 50.1%

R+2.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.2 − 50.1 = -2.90
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = -2.90 − (-3.359) = 0.458
  4. Absolute miss = |0.458| = 0.458

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72795, race ID 6220 (538 database).