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2020 House · IN-5

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 596 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.94% · Republican 50.02%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.943 − 50.024 = -4.081
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-4.081) = 4.081
  4. Absolute miss = |4.081| = 4.081

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72792, race ID 7983 (538 database).