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2020 House · MO-2

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 597 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.52% · Republican 51.89%

R+6.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.519 − 51.888 = -6.369
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-6.369) = 6.369
  4. Absolute miss = |6.369| = 6.369

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72791, race ID 8060 (538 database).