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2020 President · national

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 5,174 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 51.8% · Republican 46.1%

D+5.7

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.8 − 46.1 = 5.70
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 5.70 − (4.396) = 1.304
  4. Absolute miss = |1.304| = 1.304

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72790, race ID 6210 (538 database).