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2020 Governor · WA

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 474 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 59.1% · Republican 40.9%

D+18.2

The certified result

Democrat 56.56% · Republican 43.12%

D+13.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59.1 − 40.9 = 18.20
  2. Actual margin = 56.558 − 43.118 = 13.440
  3. Signed miss = 18.20 − (13.440) = 4.760
  4. Absolute miss = |4.760| = 4.760

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72787, race ID 8729 (538 database).