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2020 Senate · TN

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 431 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 39.3% · Republican 60.7%

R+21.4

The certified result

Democrat 35.16% · Republican 62.20%

R+27.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.3 − 60.7 = -21.40
  2. Actual margin = 35.161 − 62.198 = -27.037
  3. Signed miss = -21.40 − (-27.037) = 5.637
  4. Absolute miss = |5.637| = 5.637

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72786, race ID 6294 (538 database).