2020 President · TN
Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 485 respondents · Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 40.9% · Republican 57.6%
R+16.7
The certified result
Democrat 37.45% · Republican 60.66%
R+23.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40.9 − 57.6 = -16.70
- Actual margin = 37.451 − 60.660 = -23.209
- Signed miss = -16.70 − (-23.209) = 6.509
- Absolute miss = |6.509| = 6.509
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72786, race ID 6253 (538 database).