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2020 Senate · SC

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 416 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 51.9% · Republican 46%

D+5.9

The certified result

Democrat 44.17% · Republican 54.44%

R+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.9 − 46 = 5.90
  2. Actual margin = 44.166 − 54.437 = -10.271
  3. Signed miss = 5.90 − (-10.271) = 16.170
  4. Absolute miss = |16.170| = 16.170

The poll overstated the Democrat by 16.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72785, race ID 6292 (538 database).