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2020 President · MO

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 487 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 43.4% · Republican 54.6%

R+11.2

The certified result

Democrat 41.41% · Republican 56.80%

R+15.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.4 − 54.6 = -11.20
  2. Actual margin = 41.409 − 56.800 = -15.391
  3. Signed miss = -11.20 − (-15.391) = 4.191
  4. Absolute miss = |4.191| = 4.191

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72783, race ID 6235 (538 database).