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2020 President · MD

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 67% · Republican 31.1%

D+35.9

The certified result

Democrat 65.36% · Republican 32.15%

D+33.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 67 − 31.1 = 35.90
  2. Actual margin = 65.361 − 32.150 = 33.211
  3. Signed miss = 35.90 − (33.211) = 2.690
  4. Absolute miss = |2.690| = 2.690

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72781, race ID 6231 (538 database).