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2020 Senate · KY

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 365 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46.3% · Republican 49.1%

R+2.8

The certified result

Democrat 38.23% · Republican 57.77%

R+19.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.3 − 49.1 = -2.80
  2. Actual margin = 38.231 − 57.765 = -19.534
  3. Signed miss = -2.80 − (-19.534) = 16.734
  4. Absolute miss = |16.734| = 16.734

The poll overstated the Democrat by 16.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72779, race ID 6276 (538 database).