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2020 President · KY

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 383 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 41.5% · Republican 55%

R+13.5

The certified result

Democrat 36.15% · Republican 62.09%

R+25.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.5 − 55 = -13.50
  2. Actual margin = 36.152 − 62.087 = -25.935
  3. Signed miss = -13.50 − (-25.935) = 12.435
  4. Absolute miss = |12.435| = 12.435

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72779, race ID 6228 (538 database).