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2020 Senate · CO

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 443 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 56.9% · Republican 43.1%

D+13.8

The certified result

Democrat 53.50% · Republican 44.18%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56.9 − 43.1 = 13.80
  2. Actual margin = 53.499 − 44.178 = 9.321
  3. Signed miss = 13.80 − (9.321) = 4.479
  4. Absolute miss = |4.479| = 4.479

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72777, race ID 6269 (538 database).