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2020 Senate · TX

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,042 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 43.5% · Republican 56.5%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.87% · Republican 53.51%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.5 − 56.5 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.869 − 53.508 = -9.639
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-9.639) = -3.361
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.361| = 3.361

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72774, race ID 6295 (538 database).