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2020 President · PA

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,107 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 49.9% · Republican 48.4%

D+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.84%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.9 − 48.4 = 1.50
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 48.844 = 1.164
  3. Signed miss = 1.50 − (1.164) = 0.335
  4. Absolute miss = |0.335| = 0.335

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72773, race ID 6249 (538 database).