2020 Senate · NC
Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 619 respondents · Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 53.2% · Republican 46.8%
D+6.4
The certified result
Democrat 46.94% · Republican 48.69%
R+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53.2 − 46.8 = 6.40
- Actual margin = 46.940 − 48.687 = -1.747
- Signed miss = 6.40 − (-1.747) = 8.147
- Absolute miss = |8.147| = 8.147
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72770, race ID 6284 (538 database).