2020 President · NC
Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 690 respondents · Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 52.3% · Republican 46.4%
D+5.9
The certified result
Democrat 48.59% · Republican 49.93%
R+1.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52.3 − 46.4 = 5.90
- Actual margin = 48.586 − 49.934 = -1.348
- Signed miss = 5.90 − (-1.348) = 7.248
- Absolute miss = |7.248| = 7.248
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72770, race ID 6238 (538 database).