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2020 Senate · MI

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 393 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 53.6% · Republican 46.4%

D+7.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%

D+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.6 − 46.4 = 7.20
  2. Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
  3. Signed miss = 7.20 − (1.685) = 5.515
  4. Absolute miss = |5.515| = 5.515

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72769, race ID 6280 (538 database).