2020 President · MI
Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 413 respondents · Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 53.6% · Republican 44.9%
D+8.7
The certified result
Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53.6 − 44.9 = 8.70
- Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
- Signed miss = 8.70 − (2.784) = 5.916
- Absolute miss = |5.916| = 5.916
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72769, race ID 6233 (538 database).