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2020 President · FL

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,261 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 45.5%

D+7.5

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 45.5 = 7.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 7.50 − (-3.359) = 10.858
  4. Absolute miss = |10.858| = 10.858

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72765, race ID 6220 (538 database).