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2020 Senate · AL

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 294 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 42.3% · Republican 57.6%

R+15.3

The certified result

Democrat 39.74% · Republican 60.09%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.3 − 57.6 = -15.30
  2. Actual margin = 39.737 − 60.095 = -20.358
  3. Signed miss = -15.30 − (-20.358) = 5.059
  4. Absolute miss = |5.059| = 5.059

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72763, race ID 6266 (538 database).