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2020 President · AL

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 330 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 37.8% · Republican 55%

R+17.2

The certified result

Democrat 36.57% · Republican 62.03%

R+25.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37.8 − 55 = -17.20
  2. Actual margin = 36.570 − 62.032 = -25.462
  3. Signed miss = -17.20 − (-25.462) = 8.262
  4. Absolute miss = |8.262| = 8.262

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72763, race ID 6212 (538 database).