Skip to content

2020 House · NY-24

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 738 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.97% · Republican 45.41%

R+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.965 − 45.406 = -2.441
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-2.441) = 4.441
  4. Absolute miss = |4.441| = 4.441

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72761, race ID 8115 (538 database).