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2020 House · OH-1

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 505 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.65% · Republican 51.80%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.648 − 51.795 = -7.147
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-7.147) = 5.147
  4. Absolute miss = |5.147| = 5.147

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72760, race ID 8133 (538 database).