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2020 Senate · AZ

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 409 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 47%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 47 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (2.349) = 1.651
  4. Absolute miss = |1.651| = 1.651

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72726, race ID 6268 (538 database).